India could see up to 12 additions and one deletion in the upcoming MSCI India Standard Index review, potentially resulting in net passive inflows of around $3.2 billion, according to JM Financial Institutional Securities. The brokerage noted that with India’s weight in the benchmark having declined significantly over the past two years, even marginal changes to the index could have a meaningful impact on fund flows.

The MSCI quarterly review remains one of the most closely tracked global rebalancing events, particularly for passive and quasi-passive investors focused on India. JM Financial estimates that the proposed inclusions and exclusions could generate passive inflows of about $3.4 billion and outflows of nearly $159 million, translating into a net inflow of roughly $3.2 billion. The brokerage added that the projections assume no simultaneous changes in country allocations or broader emerging market index rebalancing.

Among potential additions, electric two-wheeler maker Ather Energy has been assigned a medium probability of inclusion in the MSCI India Standard Index. JM Financial cited strong investor sentiment, supported by robust sales growth and the company’s planned Rs 2,500-crore fundraising. Since listing in May 2025 at Rs 321 per share, the stock has posted significant gains. The brokerage estimates passive inflows of about $209 million if Ather is included.

State-run steel producer SAIL also has a medium likelihood of entering the index, according to the brokerage. JM Financial highlighted the company’s Maharatna status, the government’s 65% ownership, and improving quarterly momentum. Passive inflows linked to a potential inclusion are estimated at around $188 million.

Both names are close to adequate free-float adjusted market cap above MSCI’s minimum size threshold, the brokerage said.

Recently-listed eyewear retailer Lenskart Solutions has a lower probability of being added to the benchmark. The brokerage noted that the company has continued expanding its retail footprint following its market debut, with more than 2,000 stores and a manufacturing facility capable of producing 50 million eyewear units annually. For FY26, Lenskart reported a 28% year-on-year rise in total income to Rs 8,988 crore, while consolidated net profit increased 67% to Rs 494 crore.

Schaeffler India has also been assigned a low probability of inclusion. JM Financial said the company has evolved beyond its traditional bearings business into a broader motion technology player serving automotive and industrial customers. Passive inflows from a potential addition are estimated at $157 million.

Their inclusion hinges on continued free-float adjusted market cap improvement over the remaining observation period, said JM Financial.

Meanwhile, Laurus Labs and Biocon are viewed as strong candidates for migration from the MSCI Small Cap Index to the MSCI India Standard Index. The brokerage estimates passive inflows of $496 million for Laurus Labs and $295 million for Biocon. Apar Industries and Uno Minda have been assigned medium probabilities of migration, while Glenmark Pharmaceuticals, Coforge, Thermax and Max Financial Services are seen as lower-probability candidates.

On the exclusion front, SBI Cards and Payment Services is considered the most likely stock to be removed from the MSCI India Standard Index. JM Financial estimates passive outflows of around $148 million in the event of its deletion. The brokerage said the company has recently faced pressure from rising credit costs linked to the unsecured lending segment despite maintaining a significant share of consumer spending volumes.

The MSCI quarterly review announcement is scheduled for August 12 after market hours, with any changes set to become effective on August 31.